冠察天下 | 没想到！拜登支持率何以跌到历史最低（特朗普除外）？
Joe Biden ended his first year in office as the most unpopular U.S. President in modern history, only with the exception of Donald Trump. Who could have thought?
乔·拜登的首年总统任期结束，他成为了除唐纳德·特朗普以外，现代历史上最不受欢迎的美国总统。谁能想到会这样？
I mean, I covered the White House in Washington for six years when Biden was vice president, and to be honest, he struck me as a genuine, engaging and likable man. But reality has shown us again that the U.S. presidency is at the mercy of events.
拜登担任副总统期间，我做了六年报道白宫记者。在我的印象里，他是一个真诚、有魅力、有亲和力的人。但现实再次表明，美国总统的执政轨迹受许多外部因素的冲击。
He campaigned mainly on three things: to bring Covid under control, to bridge America's divide and to boost America's standing around the world. Now Joe Biden tried on all three. He tried pretty hard, but in many instances he had limited success and on a few occasions, he even failed badly.
拜登在竞选中承诺做到三件事：控制疫情、解决美国内部分裂问题、提高美国在世界上的地位。他在这三方面都做了努力，甚至可以说是十分努力。但在多数情况下，他所取得的成果都比较有限，在一些领域甚至遭遇惨败。
Starting with Covid. If you look at the polls, Biden's popularity fell sharply around late July period when the Delta variant swept across America. In fact, July 27 was the very day when the average of cases reached over 60,000. With Omicron bringing daily case count to over a million in December, approval ratings dropped further.
首先讲讲疫情防控。民意调查显示，拜登的支持率在7月下旬前后急剧下降，当时德尔塔变异毒株席卷全美。而7月27日正是美国日均新增病例数达到6万的日子。随着奥密克戎变异毒株将日均新增病例数推升至百万以上，拜登的支持率于12月进一步下降。
Expectation matters. A year ago, Joe Biden played up the expectation that he would be the president defeating Covid and apparently he could not.
预期管理很重要。一年前，拜登高调宣布他将终结新冠肺炎疫情，但显然他并没有做到。
"Whenever a president disappoints expectations, that's a problem," said Brookings scholar and former adviser to U.S. President Bill Clinton, Bill Galston.
“一旦总统使民众的预期落空，问题便会出现。”布鲁金斯学会学者、美国前总统比尔·克林顿的顾问比尔·加尔斯顿说道。
Another deep drop in Biden's approval ratings happened around late August after the U.S.' chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan, during which 13 service members were killed.
去年8月底，拜登的支持率再次大幅下降，当时美国从阿富汗仓皇撤军，期间有13名军人丧生。
Though most Americans favored withdrawing from Afghanistan, but in the era of social media and the 24/7 news cycle, optics is everything. It's more about the perception of things than how things actually are. The desperate scenes from Kabul airport as the Taliban took control undermined perceptions of Joe Biden as a seasoned foreign policy expert who promised to restore America's standing in the world.
虽然大多数美国人支持撤军，但在社交媒体时代，在纷繁的媒体舆论中，视觉效果就是一切。人们对于事情的印象似乎要比事实本身更重要。塔利班控制阿富汗后，喀布尔机场的绝望场面破坏了民众对拜登的印象，这位承诺恢复美国世界地位的外交政策专家一夜之间形象坍塌。
And then there is the economy. Looking at some major indicators, Biden's unpopularity seemed puzzling at first. After all, his Covid Rescue Plan offered much-needed relief to over 30 millions American families. U.S. GDP is expected to grow between 5%-6%, the highest since 1976. And Biden had the second-best first-year stock performance in four decades.
接下来谈谈经济。从一些主要指标来看，拜登的不受欢迎起初似乎令人费解。毕竟他的疫情纾困计划为3000多万美国家庭提供了亟需的救济。美国国内生产总值预计将增长5%至6%，为1976年以来最高。而且拜登首年任期中的股市表现为四十年来第二好。
But let's not forget, folks. Many of these growth figures came off the relative low base of 2020 where Covid first hit America. Plus, some indicators concerning ordinary American families, such as per capita disposable income, barely grew. What did grow was inflation which reached 7% in January 2022, the highest America has seen in 40 years. All this cost Biden in the polls.
但需要注意的是，不少增长数据亮眼的原因在于去年疫情冲击美国导致其基数较低。此外，一些与美国普通家庭息息相关的指标，如人均可支配收入，则几乎没有增长。而通货膨胀水平却不断攀升，在2022年1月达到7%，是美国40年来的最高值。这些都是拜登在民调中表现欠佳的原因。
Now the question is what will Biden's low popularity mean?
那么，拜登的低支持率意味着什么？
According to Gallup, U.S. presidents with approval ratings below 50% have seen their parties lose an average of 37 House seats during the midterm elections. If that's the case, Biden would lose the House and possibly the Senate too in the upcoming mid-term elections, which will worsen Washington's political infighting.
盖洛普的数据显示，对于支持率低于50%的美国总统，其政党在中期选举中平均会失去37个众议院席位。按此估计，拜登将在即将举行的中期选举中失去对于众议院的控制，也可能同时失去对于参议院的控制，而这将加剧美国国会的政治内斗。
Under those circumstances, it would be even harder for Biden to course-correct when it comes to foreign policy. I mean, he did speak nice words about ending the Saudi war on Yemen, for example, but with little follow-up. He has not rejoined the Iran nuclear deal negotiated by Obama. And his policy toward China looks a lot similar to that of Trump's. After all, foreign policy starts at home, where there's a lot of mess to deal with.
在那种情况下，拜登会更难以纠正外交政策路线。我的意思是，他确实冠冕堂皇地呼吁沙特结束在也门的战争，但却没有采取任何后续行动。他也没有重新签订由奥巴马谈判达成的伊朗核协议。而且他的对华政策看起来与特朗普执政时期大同小异。毕竟，最大的外交其实是内政，而等待拜登处理的棘手内政问题还真不少。
Script: Wang Guan, Deng Yutong
Editors: Liu Shasha, Deng Yutong
Designer: Qi Haiming
Producer: Zhao Yunjie
Supervisor: Mei Yan
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